TERRIBLY PREDICTABLE

Just what are we expecting to happen in 2010?  I am sure we are bored of hearing what went wrong in 2009 so I wonder if making a few predictions for 2010 will prove more encouraging.  Well at least we can predict, with some degree of certainty, the tides.  After last year however, there will no doubt, be many who are just as likely to be relying on Astrology as Astronomy.  In our business we can get pretty used to dealing with the stars and looking fondly upon heavenly bodies.

I have set out a few categories and made a couple of suggestions for 2010 but I would be grateful for those of you at the coal face so to speak to offer your own suggestions.  For fun I will review it one year hence and offer a reward for anyone that was in the fortunate position of saying “told you so”.

TECHNOLOGY – Well we have flat screen TVs, internet, zero speed stabilizers and sewage treatment plants that can turn urine into your drinking water, what could possibly come next.  My guess is power management systems that can improve further the bang one gets for one’s generator buck.  It seems as this area is something that is still appetizing to owners and still worth a premium.  That is likely to lead to investment and further improvements in yachting applications.  The technology is already out there in most cases so it is more a question of automating different systems in order to work together without the chief engineer being compelled to turn things on and off like a two year old who has just reached the height of the light switches.  Believe me I know what I am talking about!

More economic propulsion systems are also on the cards with much talk of hybrid and diesel electric applications becoming more available on smaller size yachts.  But, I suspect there is more than a year before they are an obvious option.

SECURITY – Everybody is investing in new security devices and solutions for yachts and I am sure 2010 will bring in more expensive kit.  Sonic cannons which can be used by untrained deckies should prove fun until someone loses an ear.  However I would hazard a guess that biometric security solutions will make further headway into the market.  Also I would guess that bodyguards will be wearing navy blue next year rather than black which is getting a little predictable.

DESIGN – The plum bow is in and 2010 will probably see more of this sort of look as the axe bow means you pay for more dockage than you can walk on.  Coatings for paint that reduce maintenance are coming too.  They are out there already but seen as a costly addition however, as they are more and more embraced by the paint companies or bought by them, they will possible be seen as a cost saving investment.  The same is true of glass treatment, particularly in light of the push toward eco sense.

AV SYSTEMS – There is always the chance of someone bringing in an AV system that an owner’s wife can use without going mental but we are probably looking at another ten to twenty years or so don’t hold your breath.  The IPOD looks set to become a firm fixture as part of the AV system for some but it may prove too cheap and uncomplicated for many to spec.  They may come up with a way to broadcast Blue ray around the boat during 2010.

NAVIGATION – Reliability is not really the issue these days, nor is accuracy but the interface system will become further simplified and intuitive.  I would like to see a return to simpler concepts where judgment is left to the watchkeepers who can easily get the info they need as opposed to the info that is available.

BUSINESS – Sales of yachts are a subject debated around every bar in every port and discussed in every magazine.  My guess is that sailing yacht sales will increase more than power yachts but that new boats may be designed without the resale or market acceptance being as much of a concern.  There will therefore be some interesting designs to come next year with owners applying their own subjective wants outside the market influence.  It may be that the brokerage business may come under pressure to be more transparent about yacht pricing after the market turmoil and extreme valuations of the recent past.  Could this happen?  Well if it does it will not be implemented by anyone called Mr. popular.

Chartering seemed to have adapted to the market, after the initial reduction in charter bookings, it seemed that many charters occurred at shorter notice with pricing discounted.  I would that this continues as value and pricing will continue to be predominant forces throughout 2010.

CREW TRAINING – I guess most people were hoping for a sea change to online courses by now but the STCW convention is going to make that tricky both from a legislation and business point of view, so I would suspect that online will serve the needs of the elective training market which is very small, before the mandatory training courses.

I could go on but I would genuinely love to hear from you out there on the cutting edge about just what you think the next 12 months may bring; good or bad.  However in looking online I did find a quatrain from a fellow called Nostradamus:

FROM THE EAST BEHIND A CURTAIN OF IRON

ARISES A SON WHO WILL BUILD AN ARK OF STEEL

FROM GERMANY SHE WILL SAIL

HER PICTURE WILL ADORN THE COVER OF EVERY PARCHMENT OF MANTOYS

Well I suspect good old Nostradamus was right again but only time will tell.